Predicted Public Accounts Committee oral evidence sessions based on the current NAO work-in-progress list and historical WIP-to-hearing timescale data.
Sample: Accountability Process Newsletter
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- Median interval (Teal/Green): Historical median baseline calculated from accountability cycle analysis (~135 days from WIP first appearance to PAC hearing). Note: The median is an historical median from the accountability cycle analysis that is not adjusted for recess.
- Predicted PAC Hearing Range (Orange): Forecasted target hearing window. Note: The orange bar comes from our predictive model, which dynamically factors in parliamentary sitting calendars and understands that the NAO cannot publish a report during recess periods.
- Parliamentary Recess (Shaded Vertical Bands): Grey shaded vertical areas behind the WIP report time bars indicate parliamentary recess periods when Parliament is not active/sitting.
Methodology: PAC hearing dates are forecast by applying the historical median interval of 136 days between a report’s entry on the NAO work-in-progress (WIP) list and the corresponding PAC oral evidence session. Confidence percentages are derived from the empirical distribution of WIP-to-hearing intervals observed across all tracked reports. A baseline hearing probability of 44.9% reflects the proportion of WIP reports that proceed to a PAC hearing within the forecast window. This forecast is updated when the NAO WIP list changes.